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Week 5 Throwdown Showdown Results

October 7th, 2014 by Mike

sword_140x140A bit of an off week while I worked to better automate our special event sign ups, we hosted just one Throwdown Showdown for Week 5. It was a close one though! Three teams finished 2-1, forcing a three-way points differential tie-breaker to decide the winner.

Showdowns are 4-player, 1-week round robin, winner-take-all format events. They are essentially a mini-tournament, and a great way to play a trio of games in a single week and show off your skills winning a group beyond individual matches. Showdown winners also receive the sword icon and 2.5 achievement points towards their Leaderboard ranking for the win.

Check out the new Throwdown Showdown sign up and rules page for more details.

Doclate vs. Wilforkisland vs. Scott Kuff vs. Kjhawkey

Wk 5 – TS – $2 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. Wilforkisland 2 1 324.2 220.0 104.2
2. Kjhawkey 2 1 315.6 288.0 27.7
3. Doclate 2 1 332.7 322.1 10.7
4. Scott Kuff 0 3 239.8 382.2 -142.5

Wilforkisland finishes 1st using the points differential tie-breaker over Kjhawkey and Doclate.

Doclate 116.85
Wilforkisland 106.55

Doclate 121.95
Scott Kuff 96.65

Kjhawkey 118.85
Doclate 93.9

Wilforkisland 123.6
Scott Kuff 43.05

Wilforkisland 94
Kjhawkey 60.1

Scott Kuff 100.05
Kjhawkey 136.65

Week 5 Throwdown League Results

October 7th, 2014 by Mike

trophy_105x105We currently have only one official Throwdown League running, but that should change once sign ups and results become more automated. Then people can even start and run their own league, which would be pretty cool, but we’re not there yet.

This one started in Week 3, so Week 5 was the third week of its regular season. This week our league members played straight up – no funny business like the all-bench challenges in Week 4 – but we did add QB-Flex to the lineups.

A league is usually an 8-player, 8-week event, with players playing a 7-week double header regular season. The top two teams after the regular season compete in the eighth week in a triple header championship. A league gives some flexibility to have a little fun with the format, implementing neat twists and turns from regular Throwdown matches over the course of the regular season. Some examples include, “bench only challenges”, or “#RaceToTheBottom” (must pick all uninjured starters, but lowest points wins).

The payout for this $10 entry fee league is $50 for 1st place and $22 for 2nd place. Each player who placed in these spots also receives the trophy icon and achievement bonus points of 10 and 5 respectively, towards their Leaderboard ranking.

Throwdown League #1 (reg. season week 3)

Wk 5 – TL1 – 10 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. jeffNFL 5 1 518.5 413.6 104.9
2. Wilforkisland 5 1 473.9 397.6 76.4
3. Bigchief37 4 2 463.8 402.3 61.6
4. mikemar 3 3 452.8 468.9 -16.1
5. Luxuriousdusti 3 3 432.3 457.9 -25.6
6. TheKommish 3 3 503.6 563.9 -60.3
7. rhazes_darkk 1 5 391.0 449.5 -58.5
8. tttimmyg 0 6 435.1 517.3 -82.3

A huge shakeup this week in the standings! jeffNFL and Wilforkisland each won their pair of games, while Bigchief37 dropped both to fall out of 1st place and into 3rd.

TheKommish also fell on hard times. He was 3-1 heading into the week but dropped both of his games. mikemar won both of his (impressive, considering he probably went TE for his Flex instead of QB). Now there is a complete logjam in the middle with three, 3-3 teams.

rhazes_darkk got off the schneid with his first win, while tttimmyg continues to scuffle in this league. On the bright side, he lost the two closest matches of the week, by 8.25 to mikemar and 11.4 to Luxuriousdusti. Second thought, he probably preferred I didn’t bring that up…

Note guys, the standings, for simplicity are sorted by record and then points differential, but head-to-head is still the first tie-breaker if needed to decide playoff spots at the end of the season. Each player should play every other player twice over the course of the season.

mikemar 104.6
rhazes_darkk 81.3

Bigchief37 90.75
jeffNFL 105.35

Wilforkisland 119.95
TheKommish 109.4

tttimmyg 95.75
Luxuriousdusti 107.15

tttimmyg 90.85
mikemar 99.1

Wilforkisland 106.1
Bigchief37 77.25

Luxuriousdusti 83.55
rhazes_darkk 97.1

TheKommish 85.5
jeffNFL 115.25

Three Keys To Victory – Week 5: Punch It In From The Red Zone!

October 1st, 2014 by Tim Grinstead
RB Jamaal Charles

When the Kansas City Chiefs get Inside the red zone, expect RB Jamaal Charles and his sidekick Knile Davis to get their number called most of the time.

The great John Madden once said, “They’ll score if they can just get into the end zone.” It does seem to make sense, doesn’t it? Part of the trick to fantasy football is figuring out who is going to score each week. Just like I mentioned last week, I think opportunity is the key here. Although not a perfect measure, looking at red zone data can help identify team-specific trends when they near the end zone.

After Week 4 there are six NFL teams that are averaging 11 or more red zone plays per game (BAL, IND, NYG, MIA, KC and CIN). Five of those teams are in the Top 10 in points per game, and the sixth is 14th. All of them are averaging 24 points per game or higher, and the Colts and Giants are the top two red zone scoring teams, with over three red zone touchdowns per game.

I looked at rushing and passing tendencies from all 32 NFL teams from inside the 20 and inside the 5 yard line. The most interesting trend was that only six teams change their approach drastically when entering the goal line zone (inside the 5). For the most part, if a team likes to run or pass near the goal line, they do it consistently from either distance.

Red Zone Rushing Tendencies

Hue Jackson’s Cincinnati Bengals are the prototype for red zone rushing and are Top 6 in the league in getting into the red zone. They run the ball on over two-thirds of the plays inside the red zone, and that increases to 90% of plays inside the five. Both are tops in the league. They are the only team to have 80% or more of their red zone touchdowns come from running plays. Giovani Bernard has three red zone rushing touchdowns and Jeremy Hill has their other two. New England has given up six touchdowns to running backs already this year and are reeling after their trouncing on Monday night. Look for more of the same here.

Baltimore is averaging the most plays inside an opponent’s red zone of any team (13.5 plays per game). Unfortunately, they are second to last in touchdown conversions (13%), which is good for Justin Tucker but no one else. The good news is they run more than they pass, and with Bernard Pierce out the last two weeks, they have trended up. Simply put, Lorenzo Taliaferro has been better. Taliaferro is third in the league in red zone rushes (9) the past two weeks, and he has converted two of those into touchdowns. Justin Forsett had a third, while they only managed one in the first two weeks. They have a plus matchup in Indy this week that could keep them on this same trend.

Kansas City is 50/50 split on pass/run inside the red zone, but 54% passing inside the 5. This is deceiving though, as Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis have combined for 65% of all looks and touches, and seven of their nine red zone touchdowns have gone to running backs. They feed their running backs and will feast again this week at San Francisco.

Red Zone Passing Tendencies

100% of the Chicago Bears’ red zone touchdowns have been passing touchdowns, and they have one of the highest touchdown conversion rates in the league (26%), helping them average 2.5 passing touchdowns per game inside their opponent’s 20. They throw a pass over 70% of their plays inside the red zone and it only decreases to 63% inside the 5. The beneficiaries of this are Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett, as 61% of all red zone targets are throw their way, and they have combined for 9 touchdowns on the season. With Marshall banged up, Alshon Jeffrey has been second in targets the last two weeks. They match up with Carolina whose defense has been atrocious the past two weeks against good receivers (Antonio Brown, Steve Smith and Torrey Smith.)

The Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers don’t seem to believe in running the ball into the end zone. They each have the throw the ball inside the five yard line an astounding 69% of the time. They actually increase their pass rate the closer they get to the end zone. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are the top receiving tandem in the league in percentage of red zone targets (66%), while the Thomas pair, Demaryius and Julius, garner 63% of red zone targets themselves. They are playing the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings, respectively. Both of which are in the top five of least allowed red zone plays, but neither have faced such high caliber offenses.

Red Zone Dominators

The top five players in the league with the highest percentage of red zone involvement (looks and touches) are Marshawn Lynch (58%), Matt Forte (50%), Lamar Miller (48%), Matt Asiata (46%) and Rashad Jennings (44%).

Interestingly, Seattle actually increases their amount of passes by 15% inside the five yard line, but Marshawn Lynch has two receiving touchdowns already this year, and he has garnered five of the six red zone touchdowns for Seattle. Rashad Jennings is facing the Falcons this week, who are bottom three in the most red zone plays allowed, and they have been terrible against the run. Even with Jerick McKinnon‘s big game, Matt Asiata will continue to be a monster red zone threat until someone can stop him, and I expect Matt Forte’s scoring drought to end soon even if it is a receiving touchdown. DeMarco Murray leads the league with four rushing touchdowns.

Andre Johnson (55%), Larry Fitzgerald (41%), Jordy Nelson (38%) and Vincent Jackson (37%) are the top targeted wide receivers in the red zone. While the top targeted tight ends are Delanie Walker (43%), Larry Donnell (35%) and the trio of Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas (29% each).

Aside from the two old guys (AJ and Fitz), all of these players have multiple red zone receiving touchdowns, and their streaks probably won’t end anytime soon. All five of those tight ends seem unstoppable as they all have four red zone touchdowns, except for Gronk, who while ailing still has three. Brandon Marshall leads all receivers and players with five red zone touchdowns on the year.

Finally, if you’re looking for a matchup to exploit for touchdowns, the Falcons and Titans have allowed the most red zone touchdowns, and they join the Bears, Jaguars and Raiders as the top five most allowed red zone plays/touchdowns.

Good luck scoring big in your Throwdown challenges this week!

Week 4 Throwdown League Results

September 30th, 2014 by Mike

trophy_105x105We currently have only one official Throwdown League running, although I suspect there are a couple of the unofficial variety on the go. This one started in Week 3, so Week 4 was the second week of its regular season. This league really needs a proper name, doesn’t it? League members, feel free to post suggestions.

The twist with the games this week – a Throwdown favorite – all-bench challenges! Using the start/bench filter our drafters could only select bench players, except defense. Charlie Whitehurst slipped through the cracks as the only QB who was marked as bench early in the week. Some difference makers included Devin Hester, Eddie Royal, Stevie Johnson, Brandon LaFell, and there sure wasn’t much to get excited about at running back.

A league is usually an 8-player, 8-week event, with players playing a 7-week double header regular season. The top two teams after the regular season compete in the eighth week in a triple header championship. A league gives some flexibility to have a little fun with the format, implementing neat twists and turns from regular Throwdown matches over the course of the regular season. Some examples include, “bench only challenges”, or “#RaceToTheBottom” (must pick all uninjured starters, but lowest points wins).

The payout for this $10 entry fee league is $50 for 1st place and $22 for 2nd place. Each player who placed in these spots also receives the trophy icon and achievement bonus points of 10 and 5 respectively, towards their Leaderboard ranking.

Throwdown League #1 (reg. season week 2)

Wk 4 – TL1 – 10 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. Bigchief37 4 0 295.8 190.8 105.0
2. jeffNFL 3 1 297.9 237.4 60.5
3. Wilforkisland 3 1 247.9 210.9 37.0
4. TheKommish 3 1 308.7 328.7 -20.0
5. Luxuriousdusti 2 2 241.6 265.0 -23.5
6. mikemar 1 3 249.1 296.8 -47.7
7. rhazes_darkk 0 4 212.6 261.3 -48.8
8. tttimmyg 0 4 248.5 311.1 -62.6

Bigchief37 holds down top spot after back-to-back 2-0 weeks. Wilforkisland was tied for first but falls back into a three-way tie for second after he split his week.

JeffNFL won his pair of games thanks to the aforementioned Eddie Royal. TheKommish won his doubleheader by the narrowest of margins of 1.1 and 0.3 points, which explains his 3-1 record but odd looking -20 points differential.

Note guys, the standings, for simplicity are sorted by record and then points differential, but head-to-head is still the first tie-breaker if needed to decide playoff spots at the end of the season. Each player should play every other player twice over the course of the season.

mikemar 31.15
Wilforkisland 76

Bigchief37 56.4
rhazes_darkk 33.1

jeffNFL 48.7
Luxuriousdusti 37.7

TheKommish 55.05
tttimmyg 54.75

Luxuriousdusti 47.4
mikemar 45.3

tttimmyg 44.4
Bigchief37 82.7

jeffNFL 69.8
Wilforkisland 19

TheKommish 52.6
rhazes_darkk 51.5

Week 4 Throwdown Showdown Results

September 30th, 2014 by Mike

sword_140x140We hosted four Throwdown Showdowns for Week 4, and these were some tightly contested battles. Two were decided with a 3-0 sweep, and two came down to a head-to-head tie-breaker scenario to determine the winner. Talk about narrow margins of victory. Looking across the board at the 24 games played there was a 1, 0.2 and 0.1 point margin of victory (or defeat, depending on your perspective).

Showdowns are 4-player, 1-week round robin, winner-take-all format events. They are essentially a mini-tournament, and a great way to play a trio of games in a single week and show off your skills winning a group beyond individual matches. Showdown winners also receive the sword icon and 2.5 achievement points towards their Leaderboard ranking for the win.

Terminalkennedy vs. jeffNFL vs. Kjhawkey vs. Shooby

Wk 4 – TS – $2 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. Kjhawkey 3 0 423.1 346.7 76.4
2. jeffNFL 2 1 237.5 195.3 42.2
3. Terminalkennedy 1 2 347.0 417.6 -70.6
4. Shooby 0 3 264.7 312.7 -48.0

Kjhawkey sweeps this Showdown with a perfect 3-0 record.

Terminalkennedy 70.85
jeffNFL 142.2

Terminalkennedy 131.5
Kjhawkey 131.6

Shooby 143.75
Terminalkennedy 144.65

jeffNFL 94.3
Kjhawkey 124.45

jeffNFL DNF
Shooby DNF

Kjhawkey 167
Shooby 120.9

Terminalkennedy vs. rhazes_darkk vs. j0eo1s vs. mr_punisher

Wk 4 – TS – $5 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. j0eo1s 2 1 425.4 382.7 42.8
2. mr_punisher 2 1 419.7 361.6 58.2
3. Terminalkennedy 1 2 335.7 399.5 -63.9
4. rhazes_darkk 1 2 368.4 405.4 -37.1

j0eo1s wins this Showdown using the head-to-head tie breaker over mr_punisher.

Terminalkennedy 126.65
rhazes_darkk 114.6

Terminalkennedy 111.75
j0eo1s 141.8

mr_punisher 143.1
Terminalkennedy 97.25

rhazes_darkk 138.75
j0eo1s 134.3

rhazes_darkk 115
mr_punisher 144.45

j0eo1s 149.3
mr_punisher 132.15

jeffNFL vs. Luxuriousdusti vs. j0eo1s vs. awilde27

Wk 4 – TS – $5 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. jeffNFL 2 1 438.7 397.7 41.0
2. awilde27 2 1 405.9 411.3 -5.4
3. Luxuriousdusti 1 2 408.2 437.5 -29.4
4. j0eo1s 1 2 351.9 358.1 -6.3

jeffNFL wins this Showdown using the head-to-head tie breaker over awilde27.

jeffNFL 156
Luxuriousdusti 130

jeffNFL 119.3
j0eo1s 135

awilde27 132.7
jeffNFL 163.4

Luxuriousdusti 125.65
j0eo1s 121.45

Luxuriousdusti 152.5
awilde27 160.05

j0eo1s 95.4
awilde27 113.15

jeffNFL vs. awilde27 vs. mr_punisher vs. rhazes_darkk

Wk 4 – TS – $5 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. awilde27 3 0 453.5 399.1 54.4
2. mr_punisher 2 1 396.6 414.7 -18.1
3. rhazes_darkk 1 2 373.0 372.4 0.6
4. jeffNFL 0 3 380.5 417.3 -36.9

awilde27 wins this Showdown with a perfect 3-0 record.

jeffNFL 129.7
awilde27 154.55

jeffNFL 137.35
mr_punisher 141.5

rhazes_darkk 121.25
jeffNFL 113.4

awilde27 158.75
mr_punisher 136.3

awilde27 140.2
rhazes_darkk 133.1

mr_punisher 118.8
rhazes_darkk 118.6

Three Keys To Victory – Week 4: Fantasy Points Per Snap Analysis

September 25th, 2014 by Tim Grinstead
Should C.J. Spiller be looking over his shoulder at Fred Jackson, who is quietly stealing snaps out of the Buffalo Bills backfield? Tim says, yes, and fantasy owners take serious note as well.

Should C.J. Spiller be looking over his shoulder at Fred Jackson, who is quietly stealing snaps out of the Buffalo Bills backfield? Tim says, yes, and fantasy owners need to take note as well.

Fantasy Throwdown continues to grow, and one of the main reasons is that people can’t get enough of the draft, especially if their traditional fantasy league teams have been a bust. Just like a good draft, one of the keys to winning a Throwdown game is finding value at the right time and grabbing some productive late draft picks.

Two questions that persuade me to draft someone is: 1) Are they getting opportunity? And 2) Are they being productive with that opportunity?

Snap counts can tell us at a glance how involved a player is in the game plan. I looked at snap counts for three positions this week, based on snap data from Pro Football Focus, and matched that with Draft Buddy’s player stats (standard scoring) to come up with points per snap chart for running back, wide receiver, and tight end.

This chart answers some of the questions above, but also gives us the opportunity to compare values for drafting (I had Mike pull average draft position data for all Throwdown games played in Week 3). The chart excludes multi-week injured players, and it only includes running backs with an average of 20 snaps per game and receivers with an average of 30 snaps per game. Maybe you’ll find gold in the chart below, and good luck playing Throwdown this week.

fantasy_points_per_snap_rb_wr

fantasy_points_per_snap_te

Running Back Draft Values

Mark Ingram was performing at an astounding 0.86 fantasy points per snap before he was injured, and Knowshon Moreno and Ryan Matthews were also performing near Top 5 efficiency. But in their absence, some other performers have stepped up. Rashad Jennings was criminally underdrafted last week on Throwdown. He was the 28th drafted running back, drafted around the same frequency as Jonathon Stewart and Joique Bell. After his 176 yard outburst, I’m sure that will change, but you’ll have to grab him before Thursday this week.

C.J. Spiller’s snaps are limited right now, and they have gone down since Week 1. What is not on the chart above is that Fred Jackson is 14th in points per snap and he is averaging almost 10 more snaps per game. Last week, Jackson was in on over twice as many of Spiller’s snaps, and Jackson is preferred in short yardage and passing downs. Spiller was drafted as 17th running back last week, while Jackson was not in the Top 40.

Throwdown drafters are keen on Ahmad Bradshaw and Darren Sproles’ production, but buyer beware on Sproles. Sproles has been in on fewer plays each week of the season, with a season low of 21 snaps out of 74 last week. Bradshaw has a plus matchup this week with Tennessee who have given up 4 touchdowns to running backs in the past 2 weeks. Neither Bradshaw nor Trent Richardson have a rushing touchdown this year, but I believe this could be the week.

Wide Receiver Draft Values

Only five non-quarterback players have scored at least one touchdown every week of 2014, but only one of the five is a wide receiver. Jeremy Maclin joins Martellus Bennett, Marshawn Lynch, Julius Thomas, and DeMarco Murray as the only players to have at least 1 touchdown per week. Maclin is valued low in Throwdown drafts, and I was able to grab him late in every draft last weekend. He’s even being drafted below Michael Crabtree who is in his matchup this week. San Francisco has not been able to stop the pass, and Maclin’s streak should continue. He’s a volume play and production play. Maclin and Jordan Matthews (15th in FP/s) should both provide good value.

The value play of the week might be DeAndre Hopkins versus the Buffalo Bills. He is a Top 12 wide receiver right now in standard formats, and he is being drafted below the big names of Andre Johnson and Sammy Watkins at Fantasy Throwdown. Buffalo is in the bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and you will be pleasantly surprised to grab him late and watch him elevate above the competition like he did last week.

Tight End Draft Values

Travis Kelce has been mentioned before in a previous article, but he leads all tight ends in yards per pass route run (Pro Football Focus). His snap count has also increased every week, and last week, he was in on 47 snaps. His production value is the same as the league’s top tight ends with less snaps. In fact, he is the number 12 tight end in standard leagues with only 15 targets on the year. Of course, Julius Thomas is number one with only 17 targets. Either way, he is becoming more involved, and on Monday Night, “Mini-Gronk” could out score the real Gronk. Or they could both dominate in Gronk-ish fashion.

Finally, with tight end you have a chance to limit your player pool and gain an advantage. Martellus Bennett is facing the Packers this week who have no viable tight end threat this year. Bennett is second in standard scoring fantasy points, second in tight end targets, and second in tight end red zone targets. He is also one of the top scoring threats in the league with four touchdowns. If you can pair this matchup with a matchup like Falcons-Vikings or Bills-Texans, you might be able to effectively limit your player pool and gain an advantage when you draft Bennett.

Week 3 Throwdown League Results

September 23rd, 2014 by Mike

trophy_105x105Last but certainly not least, we started a new Throwdown League in Week 3 and need to post the results from the opening week. A league is usually an 8-player, 8-week event, with players playing a 7-week double header regular season. The top two teams after the regular season compete in the eighth week in a triple header championship.

Although the opening week was fairly standard, a league gives some flexibility to have a little fun with the format, implementing neat twists and turns from regular Throwdown matches over the course of the regular season. Some examples include, “bench only challenges”, or “#RaceToTheBottom” (must pick all uninjured starters, but lowest points wins).

The payout for this $10 entry fee league is $50 for 1st place and $22 for 2nd place. Each player who placed in these spots also receives the trophy icon and achievement bonus points of 10 and 5 respectively, towards their Leaderboard ranking.

Throwdown League #1 (reg. season week 1)

Wk 3 – TL1 – 10 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. Bigchief37 2 0 156.7 113.3 43.4
2. Wilforkisland 2 0 152.9 110.0 42.9
3. mikemar 1 1 172.7 173.4 -0.7
4. jeffNFL 1 1 179.4 180.7 -1.3
5. Luxuriousdusti 1 1 156.5 171.0 -14.6
6. TheKommish 1 1 201.0 222.4 -21.4
7. tttimmyg 0 2 149.3 173.3 -24.0
8. rhazes_darkk 0 2 128.0 152.3 -24.4

Bigchief37 and Wilforkisland each win their pair of games for an early lead in the standings. Four players split while tttimmyg and rhazes_darkk look to get off the schneid and earn their first win – or two – this week.

Week 3 Throwdown Tournament Results

September 23rd, 2014 by Mike

medal_110x110We are rolling through our special event results from Week 3. Our biggest event of the season so far concluded in Week 3 with the finals of our 12-player tournament started in Week 2.

A Throwdown Tournament is an elimination competition, with players split into groups, each attempting to advance from their group through a bracket to the Championship. Review the first round results to see how each player advanced.

The prize payout for this tournament is $100 to A-Champ, $25 2nd place (from A-Championship) and $20 to B-Champ. Each player who placed in these spots also receives the medal icon and achievement bonus points of 10, 5, 2.5 respectively, towards their Leaderboard ranking.

A-Championship:
atcdav vs. JoePoolGuy vs. Terminalkennedy

Wk 3 – TT – A W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. Terminalkennedy 1 1 213.5 189.0 24.6
2. JoePoolGuy 1 1 231.5 241.3 -9.8
3. atcdav 1 1 240.1 254.8 -14.8

It was a close finish! All three teams split their games, with Terminalkennedy edging out JoePoolGuy and atcdav for first place based on the points differential tie-breaker. JoePoolGuy finishes second.

atcdav 147.65
JoePoolGuy 134.95

JoePoolGuy 96.55
Terminalkennedy 93.65

Terminalkennedy 119.85
atcdav 92.4

B-Championship:
Luxuriousdusti vs. Scott Kuff vs. Wilforkisland

Wk 3 – TT – B W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. Wilforkisland 2 0 233.8 212.9 20.9
2. Scott Kuff 1 1 209.5 209.1 0.4
3. Luxuriousdusti 0 2 221.5 242.8 -21.3

Wilforkisland is our B-Champ winning the group with a 2-0 record.

Luxuriousdusti 100.5
Scott Kuff 117.65

Scott Kuff 91.85
Wilforkisland 108.6

Wilforkisland 125.15
Luxuriousdusti 121

Week 3 Throwdown Showdown Results

September 23rd, 2014 by Mike

sword_140x140A lot of special event results to post this morning for Week 3 before we start turning our attention to Week 4. Lets start with the Throwdown Showdowns. These are 4-player, 1-week round robin, winner-take-all format events.

It is essentially a mini-tournament, and a great way to play a trio of games in a single week and show off your skills winning a group beyond individual matches. Showdown winners also receive the sword icon and 2.5 achievement points towards their Leaderboard ranking for the win.

jeffNFL vs. mikemar vs. awilde27 vs. tony25f

Wk 3 – TS – $2 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. awilde27 3 0 324.6 273.5 51.1
2. jeffNFL 2 1 269.3 253.2 16.1
3. mikemar 1 2 320.2 354.4 -34.2
4. tony25f 0 3 289.3 322.2 -32.9

awilde27 continues to show his early season dominance sweeping this Showdown with a perfect 3-0 record.

jeffNFL 105.6
mikemar 70.1

jeffNFL 94.4
awilde27 115.6

tony25f 67.5
jeffNFL 69.25

mikemar 96.7
awilde27 109.4

mikemar 153.35
tony25f 139.35

awilde27 99.55
tony25f 82.4

mikemar vs. Kjhawkey vs. Mike

Wk 3 – TS – 2 W L PF   PA   Dif  
1. Kjhawkey 2 0 238.4 193.4 45.0
2. mikemar 1 1 250.1 281.3 -31.2
3. Mike 0 2 228.5 242.4 -13.9

We didn’t get a fourth for this Showdown that came together Friday, so we simply went with 3-player round robin. These guys showed me no mercy. I lost two close games, by 7.2 and 6.65. (damn you Aaron Rodgers and LeSean McCoy!) while Kjhawkey won his pair of games to take the group.

mikemar 104.15
Kjhawkey 141.95

Kjhawkey 96.4
Mike 89.2

Mike 139.3
mikemar 145.95

Three Keys To Victory – Week 3: Coaching Tendencies

September 19th, 2014 by Tim Grinstead
With offensive coordinator Hue Jackson expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run, run and run some more. That is great for Giovani Bernard AND Jeremy Hill fantasy owners.

With offensive coordinator Hue Jackson expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run, run and run some more. There is enough to go around for Giovani Bernard AND Jeremy Hill fantasy owners.

Week 3 is upon us, and teams are showing a little more of their offensive hand. It’s also a good time to look at coaching tendencies and see if they are flipping their script from the past or staying the course. There are some new faces in new places this season, but sometimes the old habits are hard to break.

I mentioned Bill Lazor last week for Miami, and he continues to use Mike Wallace as his number one receiver. But other coaches are giving us a glimpse into what 2014 might continue to look like. I’ve outlined a few that could help you in drafts this weekend.

Same Old Coach, Same Old Tricks

Gary Kubiak is now running the Baltimore Ravens offense as coordinator. He was with Denver from 1995-2005 and Houston from 2006-2013. His offenses from a passing perspective have surprising startling tendencies, and there are very few exceptions through the years. Most importantly, they have had 1 number one receiver with a huge number of targets and receptions (near 100 receptions every year), and the second wide receiver gets about half the total of the top wide receiver (i.e. 100 to 50).

In fact, typically the TE outpaces the team’s second WR. In Denver, from 2001-2005, Rod Smith outpaced number two wide receivers in receptions 440 to 217 (or 2:1.) Andre Johnson has almost exactly double (626:314) the second wide receiver in the past 8 years (excluding his 2 injured seasons.) The number two targets on those teams were typically Shannon Sharpe and Owen Daniels.

Before the season started, most pundits targeted Torrey Smith has being the number one receiver, but the first couple of weeks have shown a rejuvenated Steve Smith as stealing the lion’s share of targets. The younger Smith actually has only a third of the receptions of the older Smith. Rounding out the top three in receptions are Dennis Pitta and Owen Daniels, the tight ends, and Daniels (TE2) has the same number of targets as Torrey.

In other words, this looks a lot like Kubiak offenses of the past, but Torrey Smith is playing the Ashley Lelie/Kevin Walter role, while Steve Smith looks a lot like Rod Smith. I don’t think this is a mirage, and Steve Sr. looks good. Drafters may wise up, but Torrey has been drafted higher than Steve in every draft I’ve been in the past couple of weeks, and I think Joe Haden (CLE) will be playing more on Torrey this week than Steve.

Two Is Better Than One Approach

Hue Jackson’s last high ranking coaching jobs were for 2 seasons in Oakland (2010, 2011) when he was offensive coordinator and then head coach the next season. During his tenure there, his teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing attempts and the bottom 10 in passing attempts. After his first two weeks in Cincinnati, the Bengals are currently ranked 2nd in rushing attempts and 27th in passing attempts.

His teams also finished top 10 in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns those seasons, and he did it with two good running backs. Both Darren McFadden and Michael Bush had big seasons those years, and I think Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill could both be a factor this year if these tendencies stay the course. In 2011, his team also finished 11th in receiving yards despite being 22nd in pass attempts. So, there’s still room for Andy Dalton and A.J. Green to shine.

More specifically for this week, Jeremy Hill could be better than any Titans running backs, and the Titans are a middle of the pack run defense. Choose the pick two games option on Fantasy Throwdown and go with Colts-Jaguars and Bengals-Titans. Outside of Bernard and Ahmad Bradshaw, Hill could be the third best running back, effectively limiting your pool for a late round pick.

Coaches With Fool Proof Plans

Counting the past 5 regular season games (since Week 15 of last season), Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, and Le’Veon Bell each have four rushing touchdowns. That’s a tie for second place. Knile Davis has 5 rushing touchdowns during the same period of time. Andy Reid said this week that he doesn’t expect the game plan to change much if Jamaal Charles is out. Maybe he should have stated that he was going to feed Davis more than Charles.

In Week 17 last season Charles was out, and Davis touched the ball 29 times with 27 rush attempts. Charles only touched the ball 27 times at most in three separate games, and his highest rush attempts in 2013 was 22. Last week when Charles went out of the game, Davis racked up 28 touches with 23 rush attempts. Again, these totals are higher than any for Charles under Andy Reid’s regime. Even if Charles somehow goes this week, he will most likely be limited. Davis is the play.

Finally, Gregg Rosenthal this week wrote an article that stated it seems like Chip Kelly has invented a quarterback-proof offense. Again, using the last 5 regular season games, only four quarterbacks have averaged 275 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns per game in that time span – Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles.

Foles has actually looked pretty bad this year so far, and he is still averaging 326 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in his first two games. Against Washington this week, he has a chance to outpace the field, especially if he turns on last year’s charm. Pair him up with a big name QB and grab him later in your Throwdown draft.